ZuluTrade Blog

Currencies are trading more or less where they have ended the quarter on Friday

Market View | Monday, April 2, 2012 3:55 AM GMT

Good Morning,

- Mixed signals from the economic data front from China, Australia and Japan, which did not have too much impact on FX. Currencies are trading more or less where they have ended the quarter on Friday.

- Stocks: Nikkei +0.53 %, Hang Seng -0.25 %, Shanghai Composite +0.47 %, Dow Jones +0.50 %, S+P500 +0.37 %

- German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said no firewall would be large enough to be convincing to financial markets unless structural reform took place.

- The recent drop in Portuguese bond yields is "very positive," Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar told reporters. Gaspar said that Europe is better equipped to fight the sovereign-debt crisis with the firewall agreed on by European finance ministers in a meeting and is "more likely" to be successful. The "emphasis should not be placed on the amount," he said.

- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the Fed has done the best it can to spur a recovery in the U.S. labor market, even with the unemployment rate persisting at 8.3 percent.

- Sentiment among Japan's largest manufacturers failed to improve in March as executives predicted the yen will rebound against the dollar, hurting exporters' sales and profits. The quarterly Tankan index was unchanged from minus 4 in December, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo. That was less than the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a reading of minus 1.




Japan Data recap Period Survey Actual Prior
Tankan Large Manufacturing Q1 -1 -4 -4
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Q1 5 5 4
Tankan Large Mfg Outlook Q1 2 -3 -5
Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook Q1 6 5 0
Tankan Large All Indust Capex Q1 0.8% 0.0% 1.4%


- Chinese manufacturing gauges for March offered a mixed snapshot of the nation's slowdown, underscoring a split among economists over whether the central bank will lower interest rates. A Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a one-year high of 53.1, exceeding economists' estimates, a report from the logistics federation and the statistics bureau showed today. The gauge has a pattern of rising in March. A PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to a four-month low of 48.3.



China Data Recap Period Survey Actual Prior
PMI Manufacturing Mar 50.8 53.1 51.0
PMI Manufacturing Mar - 48.3 49.6


- The central bank will balance efforts to maintain price stability and ensure a reasonable level of social financing, according to a statement on the website of People's Bank of China, issued after its first-quarter monetary policy report.

Australia Data Recap Period Survey Actual Prior
AIG Perf. of Mfg Index Mar - 49.5 51.3
TD Securities Inflation yoy Feb - 1.8% 2.0%
Building Approvals mom Feb 0.5% -7.8% 1.1%
Building Approvals yoy Feb -5.3% -15.2% -14.7%


- Australia's best defense against the global economic outlook is to return the budget to surplus and provide flexibility for interest rate cuts to ensure growth, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

- South Korea's credit rating outlook was raised by Moody's Investors Service to positive from stable on the nation's fiscal strength and improved resilience to financial market turmoil. "Very strong and improving fiscal fundamentals," were a key reason for the change, along with resilience in the country's external financing position, Moody's said in a statement today. The rating remains at A1.

- Business confidence in the U.K. economy surged to a nine-month high in March, signaling that growth may have resumed in the first quarter after contracting in the last three months of 2011, Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets said

- U.K. house prices rose in March for the first time in 21 months as buyers rushed to beat the expiration of a property-tax exemption and prices in London gained, Hometrack Ltd. said.


UK Data Recap Period Survey Actual Prior
Lloyds Business Barometer Mar - 31 1
Hometrack Housing Survey mom Mar - 0.2% 0.0%
Hometrack Housing Survey yoy Mar - -1.0% -1.4%


- IMM Positions: EUR -89k vs -83k, JPY -68k vs -26k (biggest short since July 2007), GBP -11k vs -16k, CHF -15k vs 11k, CAD 24k vs 42k, AUD 60k vs 45k, NZD 4k unchanged

- 1600 US Construction Spending Feb
- 1600 US ISM Manufacturing Mar
- 1600 US ISM Prices Paid Mar
- 1600 Fed Bullard
- 1835 Fed Pianalto
- 0915 Spain PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 0945 Italy PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 0950 France PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 0955 Germany PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 1000 Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 1100 Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb
- 1230 ECB Kranjec
- 1030 UK PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 0915 Switzerland Retail Sales Feb
- 0930 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing Mar
- 0830 Sweden Swedbank PMI Mar


Have a good start !

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