ZuluTrade Blog

Yen - its all about the upcoming elections and the two day BOJ meeting...

Market View | Monday, November 19, 2012 3:02 AM GMT

Good Morning,


 - Yen - its all about the upcoming elections an the two day BOJ meeting, which started today. JPY dropped against most major counterparts after Liberal Democratic Party leader Shinzo Abe was reported to have said he’ll choose someone in favor of inflation targets as the next BOJ governor. High in USDJPY was 81.56. EURUSD traded in a 1.2730-1.27735 range.

- Stocks: Nikkei +1.43 %, Hang Seng +0.22 %, Shanghai Composite Dow Jones +0.37 %, S+P500 +0.48 %

- 25% favor the Liberal Democratic Party in Dec. 16 election, and 16% favor the Democratic Party of Japan, Nikkei reports, citing survey taken Nov. 16-18. * LDP support dropped 2 points, DPJ rose 5 points since survey last month * Noda cabinet support rate +7pts to 27%, disapproval rate -7pts to 62% * Support for LDP’s Shinzo Abe for next prime minister 37%, -3pts, vs 25% for DPJs Yoshihiko Noda, +7pts * Nationwide poll of 1,479 households with 927 responses/No margin of error provided

- Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said monetary and fiscal proposals reportedly made last week by Shinzo Abe, his main political opponent and possible next prime minster, are “suspect” and possibly detrimental to the nation’s finances, the Financial Times reported, citing an interview.

- Opposition leader Shinzo Abe's Saturday call for the Bank of Japan to directly purchase government bonds as part of efforts to fight deflation is likely to stir controversy, the Nikkei reports in its Nov. 18 morning edition.

 - Japan Data Recap           Period      Survey      Actual      Prior

* Leading Index CI            Sep F         -          91.6        91.7

* Coincident Index CI         Sep F         -          91.5        91.2

* Machine Tool Orders yoy     Oct F         -         -6.7 %     -6.7 %


- German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he’s confident he and his euro-area colleagues will reach an agreement to close Greece’s financial gap when they meet in Brussels on Nov. 20. * "We have to find a common line and we have to do it on Tuesday,’’ Schaeuble said today in an interview on ARD television. “We’re working at full steam; I think we’ll do it.” * Schaeuble reiterates that Greek debt write-offs from public institutions are legally unworkable * Greece must return to the market in 2020 or 2022

- Greece will need yet more international financial assistance beyond the agreed bailout programs through 2014, ECB Asmussen said. The government in Athens probably won't be able to return to finance its debt on financial markets in 2015 and 2016, thus requiring another assistance program, Joerg Asmussen told German public broadcaster ZDF.

- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that a decision by Catalonia’s President Artur Mas to call early elections (25 Nov) in the region is a “mistake.” * Early elections are leading to divisions and “wasting time” and energy that should be used to deal with the economic situation

- US House speak Boehner says budget talks with Obama were constructive

- US Pres Obama and House Minority Leader Pelosi confident of reaching a fiscal cliff deal

- NZ Data Recap               Period   Survey   Actual   Prior  Revised

* Performance Services Index   Oct       -       57.4    49.6    49.9

* PPI Inputs qoq               Q3      0.3 %    -1.0 %   0.6 %

 -  New Zealand Prime Minister JohnKey comments in a TV3 interview: * Says economy is growing though not as fast as he would like * Disagreed that growth is set to slow beyond 2013 * Says if RBNZ believed there would be no growth beyond 2013 then it would cut interest rates

- China’s central bank governor said convertibility will be the next step in the overhaul of the exchange-rate system as calls grow for the nation’s new leadership to deepen changes in the economy to sustain growth. “For the central bank, I think the next movement related to the yuan is going to be reform of convertibility,” Zhou Xiaochuan said at a conference in Beijing on Nov. 17. “We are going to realize it, we are moving in this direction, we need to go further, we will have some deregulation.”

- Bank of England policy maker David Miles said there is more the central bank can do to aid the economy if growth remains sluggish. With the squeeze on incomes coming to an end, the economy may return to more “normal” growth rates over the next year to 18 months, he said in an interview with Sky News television.

- IMM Positions: EUR -84k (biggest short since 21 Sep) vs -67k, JPY -30k vs -40k, GBP 8k (smallest long since 21 Sep) vs 19k, CHF -9k vs flat, CAD 66k vs 75k, AUD 68k vs 60k, NZD 19k vs 17k



US NAHB Housing Market Index Nov


US Existing Home Sales Oct


Italy Industrial Orders Sep


Eurozone Consturction Output Sep


SNB Danthine, ex-ECB Trichet, Riksbank Svensson


ECB Weidmann


ECB Coeure, EU Barnier


Bank of Spain Publishes bad loans data


Have a good start


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